Our Focus Groups
Focus groups with farmers lie at the heart of our project's approach. These conversations allow us to:
- Share the model's projections of how crop likelihood is changing with the very people who might be planting those future seeds.
- Ask them what they think about those projections and what kinds of things we're missing.
- Distill their insights into actionable feedback to adjust the model's parameters and make new projections that better take into account farmers' experiences.
Between 2025 and 2026, we conducted focus groups across Georgia, Nebraska, and Ohio. In each state, we held one focus group with farmers growing their state's dominant commodity crops, one with farmers growing crops outside their state's typical mix, and one with young farmers — a total of 9 focus groups. For more details on what types of farmers we included in each focus group, hover over the cards below.
Commodity
Commodity
Farmers growing dominant regional commodity crops (e.g., corn, soybean, cotton, peanut, hay)
Alternative
Alternative
Farmers producing niche, organic, non-GMO, or direct-market crops and using alternative farming practices
Young
Young
Farmers aged mid-40s or younger, representing producers planning for long-term future agricultural change
What We Asked
Each session started with a plain-language overview of the model we use to make crop projections. We were upfront that its assumptions are purposefully naïve: the first model was informed exclusively by changing environmental and climatic variables (like precipitation and temperature), and it held constant everything else that goes into affecting what crop mixes are grown.
After sharing state-specific projections about how their state's cropping mix could change in the coming years, we asked farmers a few core questions:
- Do these projections seem realistic to you?
- What factors do you think matter most for predicting crop suitability?
- What influences what you actually decide to grow?
What We Learned
The cards below capture the factors that emerged from our first round of focus groups as particularly salient — the issues producers across all states mentioned most often and emphasized as especially critical when considering what crops will become more or less likely in the future.
Across all farmer groups and all three states, commodity prices received and the existence and proximity of relevant markets emerged as the most frequently mentioned and most frequently emphasized theme. After economics, though, farmers in different states emphasized different combinations of production elements that they thought were particularly likely to be impactful on future cropping patterns. Below, see what came up as the top five themes in each state.
Georgia
Commodity Prices Received & Access to Markets
Farmers repeatedly mentioned the importance of the prices that commodities fetch — even if a crop is projected to be well-suited to future weather conditions, farmers emphasized they wouldn't plant it if they couldn't sell it for a good price. Farmers also emphasized that access to markets for a crop is one of the most important factors that determine what they grow.
Existing Infrastructure
Storage and processing facilities were frequently mentioned as playing important roles when thinking about future crop shifts and what farmers consider viable to grow.
Future Weather
Farmers emphasized that changes in rainfall, temperature, and extreme weather events impact planting strategies. If they start experiencing increased rainfall over a prolonged period of time, many reported that they would adjust production accordingly.
Availability of Labor
Farmers underscored that access to labor, availability of labor in relation to management on the farm, scale of the operations, and policies for bringing workers from out of the country matter when it comes to thinking about shifts in future cropping patterns.
Consolidation
Georgia farmers emphasized that consolidation and concentration also matter when thinking about possible crop futures — especially the concentration of farmland ownership and that the agribusiness sector has been moving towards fewer, bigger firms holding more power.
Nebraska
Commodity Prices Received & Access to Markets
Farmers repeatedly mentioned the importance of the prices that commodities fetch — even if a crop is projected to be well-suited to future weather conditions, farmers emphasized they wouldn't plant it if they couldn't sell it for a good price. Farmers also emphasized that access to markets for a crop is one of the most important factors that determine what they grow.
Cost of Inputs
The cost of land, machinery, and necessary production inputs like seeds and fertilizer also influence what farmers produce. If an alternative crop requires expensive, specialized machinery, farmers said they would be less likely to adopt it.
Existing Technology
The current suite of on-farm technology — everything from existing irrigation infrastructure to the machines a farmer already owns — exerts strong pressures on what kinds of crops farmers see as reasonable choices to grow.
Socio-cultural Dimensions
Nebraska farmers underscored that social and cultural pressures also shape how they farm, including factors like cultural preferences for certain crops, the pressure to specialize, succession planning, and mental health.
Future Technology
Farmers emphasized that anticipated technological advancements — including upcoming improvements in crop genetics, as well as digital technologies — could enable them to continue growing their current crop mixes.
Ohio
Commodity Prices Received & Access to Markets
Farmers repeatedly mentioned the importance of the prices that commodities fetch — even if a crop is projected to be well-suited to future weather conditions, farmers emphasized they wouldn't plant it if they couldn't sell it for a good price. Farmers also emphasized that access to markets for a crop is one of the most important factors that determine what they grow.
Cost of Inputs
The cost of land, machinery, and necessary production inputs like seeds and fertilizer also influence what farmers produce. If an alternative crop requires expensive, specialized machinery, farmers said they would be less likely to adopt it.
Existing Infrastructure
Storage and processing facilities were frequently mentioned as playing important roles when thinking about future crop shifts and what farmers consider viable to grow.
Future Weather
Farmers emphasized that changes in rainfall, temperature, and extreme weather events impact planting strategies. If they start experiencing increased rainfall over a prolonged period of time, many reported that they would adjust production accordingly.
Existing Technology
The current suite of on-farm technology — everything from equipment and machinery a farmer already owns to existing irrigation infrastructure — exerts strong pressures on what kinds of crops farmers see as reasonable choices to grow.
What's Next?
In late 2026, we will be conducting a second round of focus groups with the same farmers who participated in our first round. During these, we will present our team's revised model that better accounts for the diverse factors they emphasized as important. We're interested in hearing what farmers make of these "new and improved" projections, if they find Model 2.0 more believable, and what they think a desirable future cropscape would look like in their area.